The Transport Sector's Impact on Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is currently finalising the 4th Assessment Report on Climate Change.  The report will assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.  Reports by the three Working Groups provide a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the current state of global climate change.

According to Working Group III's document on mitigation, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 70% between 1970 and 2004.  The direct emissions from the transport sector have increased by 120% during the same period.  This is the second largest growth persector, the largest growth comes from the energy supply sector. 

The consequences of increase GHG emissions include increased chances of natural disasters such as flooding, drought and hurricanes.  The number of devastating natural disasters has increased dramatically in the last few years and this trend is predicted to continue.  There is particular concern about the impact this will have on the developing world. 

The transport sector accounts for approximately 25% of CO₂ emissions in South African cities.  According to the National Household Travel Survey (2003) 26% of households in South Africa have access to private vehicles.  The use of private vehicles as main mode of transport is linked to monthly income and as shown in the survey once monthly income exceeds R6 000, the use of private vehicles increases to 60% of that population group.  As the economy improves and incomes increase, people will be more inclined to use private vehicles.  This will add to the emissions atrributed to the transport sector. 

The public transport system in South Africa also adds to GHG emissions.  This is largely due to a lack of consistent investment into public transport, which has led to a stock of old vehicles operating on our roads.  In many cases these vehicles are less fuel efficient and more polluting than new vehicles available today.  There has been some investement recently, but much will need to be done to bring the public transport systems up to a level that will make them energy and environmentally efficient.  These vehicles contribute to the increasing CO₂ emissions as well as the poor air quality found in most of our major cities.